In May of 2004, the Commission issued an almost 500-page report that suggested the Castro government was near collapse. Just a few more Radio Marti broadcasts and a few more travel license denials and it would all be over. The United States, the report suggested, would then come in and show the Cubans how to run their country -- how to operate their schools and make their trains run on time. So confident was the Bush administration of Castro’s impending demise that on July 28, 2005, it appointed a transition coordinator for Cuba. As one critic noted at the time: “At least in Iraq they waited until they had invaded and occupied the country before appointing a transition coordinator!”
Even Cubans who had their disagreements with their government did not want to be told by the U.S. how to run their country. Elizardo Sanchez, Cuba’s leading human rights activist, was quoted in an EFE dispatch as calling the appointment “counterproductive.”
Oswaldo Paya, the dissident leader of the Varela project, objected strongly saying that “any transition must be coordinated by Cubans and only by Cubans, and most certainly not by someone appointed by the U.S. government. The very idea is harmful to our cause.”
More than two years after the issuance of the first report, at a ceremony on July 10, 2006 presided over by Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and Commerce Secretary Gutierrez, the co-chairs of the Commission, a new report was issued called a “Compact With the Cuban People.” Doubtless in response to the unfavorable reaction in Cuba to the old report, the new one stressed that solutions must come from Cubans on the island. The U.S. simply stood ready to support their initiatives. But having said that, it went on with page after page of recommended actions, from reorganizing the economy and the educational system to the holding of multiparty elections -- all of this provided, of course, that the Cubans on the island wished to initiate them....And the U.S. transition coordinator remained in place.
The original report’s premise that the Castro regime was on the verge of collapse was undiminished. But this simply reflected its divorce from reality. For rather than collapsing, the Cuban economy shows strong signs of reinvigoration. It has a new, vitally important economic relationships with Venezuela and China. The price of nickel, its principal export, has reached an all-time high. And there are strong signs of a new oil field off the north coast, for which various nations are already bidding for drilling rights. Even the CIA pegged Cuba’s economic growth rate in 2005 at 8%. It will almost certainly be higher for 2006. If the oil field comes in, its all over for U.S. policy.
The 2006 “Compact” also sought to rule out a “succession strategy” -- i.e. that Raul Castro, the First Vice President, replace Fidel Castro if the latter became incapacitated -- as called for by the Cuban Constitution. It called on Cuban citizens and the international community to insist instead on an entirely new government, one elected by the people.
There was no response at all to this call. Yet, when on July 31st Fidel Castro announced that because of a delicate intestinal operation requiring an indefinite period of recuperation he was signing power over to his brother, who would now be Acting President, there was dancing in the streets of Miami and elation in Washington. The expectation in both was that the revolutionary system in Cuba would quickly collapse. As one exile reveler in Miami put it: “The Cuban people won’t put up with Raul Castro more than two weeks.”
Wrong again. Almost eight months later, Raul is governing the country smoothly. There has not been a single protest or disruption; rather, the Cuban people have accepted the transition with calm maturity, and there is every indication that they will continue to do so.
In short, the Bush administration’s expectations for regime change have proved strikingly wrong, and its efforts to bring that about through such measures as travel controls and increased Radio and TV Marti broadcasts are pathetically ineffective. But the administration gives no sign of giving up on this failed policy. On the contrary, in his remarks on February 21st, Gutierrez said the U.S. would stand by its present policy, ready to “help the Cuba people hasten the day for a transition government, for the moment when the Cuban people demand freedom.”
And when that day comes, he assured them, the U.S. would provide emergency food, water, fuel, electrical power, and medical equipment -- and would help them rebuild their economy.
But Cubans may have serious
reservations about such offers in view of the Bush administration’s
glaring failure to provide just such assistance to its own people -- to
the victims of Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast -- or to rebuild, or
just restore water and power, in Iraq. As a Cuban friend put it to me
during my last trip to Havana in February: “The U.S. reputation for
nation building goes up in the smoke rising from the ruins of Iraq!”
Wayne S. Smith, a Senior Fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, D.C. and an Adjunct Professor at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, is the former Chief of the U.S. interests Section in Havana (1979-82)
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Comments (23)
They have not given up on their goal of returning Cuba to the pre-1959 neocolonial era when U.S. supported corruption and exploitation was everywhere.
Cuba does not need "made in USA freedom." What it needs is to continue to defend the island-nation's sovereignty and national independence.
Talks, yes, but they must be based on mutual respect and not on an imperial-master and vassal relationship.
George W. Bush has rejected talks. Let the Cuban people continue with their lives to make sure that the system they have freely chosen becomes a better one. They should be proud of their accomplishments.
There will be no impositions by an imperial power. The Cuban people will see to that.
March 5, 2007 5:52 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 5, 2007 17:52
I propose a policy of peace , economic development and tranquility in the Caribbean. This will include open and free trade, 2-way travel , and cultural relations with Cuba. As I am shipping cows to Cuba form Maine,New York, Vermont, Pennsylvania and Florida, togeteher with animal feed from Tampa to Havana: why can't people also travel to see their families, friends and as tourists ?
We are out of step with the process of making peaceful friends with the Cubans in Cuba.
See you in Bayamo !
John Parke Wright
Naples , Florida
March 5, 2007 6:05 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 5, 2007 18:05
the problem is the Cuban-American community of miami has a stronghold on us policy (ironically showing the undemocratic nature of their own community). They will never see the issue through objective eyes and will never by persuaded. .they think Wayne is a communist.. All cubans seem the same, extreme right in miami and extreme left on la isla.. where are the moderates?
March 5, 2007 7:30 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 5, 2007 19:30
They deny my husband the right to see his dying father-in-law.
Controlling my most basic right - to visit and see and help my own flesh and blood. That seems facist to me.
Yes for Cuban-american family rights act!
March 5, 2007 7:33 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 5, 2007 19:33
The President's response to a journalist's subsequent question was that he did not know what was going on in Cuba. Mr. Bush explained that that was because Cuba was "opaque." This, despite his briefings from the CIA, the reports from the US Interests Section in Havana and the State Department (Condoleeza Rice was co-chair of the commission, along with Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, born in Cuba), information from other friendly embassies, information from Echelon, and the constant reports from the independent--from the Cuban government--reporters and dissidents who work closely with the Interests Section.
In the face of what the "reality-based community" likes to call "facts," the President persists in hanging on to his policy, even if the rest of the world disagrees. (And the rest of the world does disagree, as the vote at the UN's General Assembly every year shows.)
Wayne Smith is correct: the President's policy is delusional.
March 5, 2007 10:08 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 5, 2007 22:08
Herr Bush cares not what the majority of Americans want, from Iraq to Cuban policy.
May God save the U.S. from George W.
I love America, with all it's faults, but Bush must go.
March 5, 2007 11:42 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 5, 2007 23:42
One example of millions: our Cuban mother Haydee G. Rodriguez died January 13, 2007 at age 95 in my sister Yleana Mason's home in South Carolina. Mother was terminaly ill and for the past eight months we have been trying to bring our other sister Haydee V. Parravicini from Matanzas, Cuba so that she could see and say good bye to our mami. My sisters and I filled all kinds of USA's papers and forms, spend all kinds of money, made all kinds of phone calls, worked in internet and even asked our respective US Senators for help. Well our mother died and our sister Haydecita is still in Cuba. Haydecita, who visited us here in the US for the last time at the end of 2003, recently and finally got her US visa to come; but kind of late, do not you think? There was no traveling problem with Havana, all of the impediments, delays, cruelties and lack of freedom were Washington's.
Waldo F. parravicini
1552 Ridge Crest Way, Monyerey Park, Ca. 91754
pwaldo36@charter.net
March 6, 2007 12:35 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 6, 2007 00:35
My father and his parents lived here in Cuba during World War II. They were German Jewish refugees from the Holocaust and if it weren't for their ability to find refuge here, I never would have been born. I learned about Cuba from my father and have been following this country's evolution for most of my adult life. Now I come as a journalist and researcher working hard to see how this country has been able to survive despite nearly fifty years of bad neighborly efforts to re-impose Washington-backed rule on this place. No one complained about human rights abuses when the Batista dictatorship was in place. Today, despite its many problems, Cuba's health care system is the envy of the third world, and provides help to poor and struggling peoples everywhere.
Cuba even offered to send 1500 doctors to work for free in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. They don't involve themselves in Haiti's domestic politics, where Cuba provides the backbone of that sad country's medical system. We have much to learn from Cuba, and should open ourselves to that.
I'm sitting here in Havana, and from where I sit, calmness prevails in this country. I've traveled around the island over the years when I've been coming here, since 1999, and there's little likelihood that it's much different in the rest of the country. Cuba has plenty of problems, but the solution to NONE of them can be found in a Washington-imposed solution. It's time to wake up and smell the coffee. And it's time to normalize relations with this small neighboring country.
To follow the Cuban story as it continues to unfold, I welcome readers here to join in my own voyage of discovery as I try to follow developments in this country. I'm based in Los Angeles but travel here to Cuba frequently and continue to share information and impressions via a Yahoo news group and a personal website which I continue to maintain while visiting.
Thanks to the Washington Post as well for opening this kind of discussion here as well.
Walter Lippmann
Havana, Cuba
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/CubaNews/
http://www.walterlippmann.com
March 6, 2007 5:39 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 6, 2007 05:39
The only rational explanation I find to that is that they have no idea of what has been going on in Cuba along half a century, no idea at all.
March 6, 2007 6:54 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 6, 2007 06:54
The Cold War is over. Communism crossing the Rio Grande was never a serious threat, even less so now. It's time for the US to start doing some good in the region, rather than continuously bullying other countries into submission.
March 6, 2007 1:18 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 6, 2007 13:18
March 6, 2007 2:09 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 6, 2007 14:09
March 6, 2007 2:26 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 6, 2007 14:26
March 6, 2007 3:23 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 6, 2007 15:23
It is in these terms that the Cuba policy debate ought to take place. What is in the national interest of the United States? If the policy fails and harms the U.S. throughout the region, why must we continue to injure our interests with a policy that doesn't work. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that we need to change course. But let's not forget who we're dealing with in Washington.
[1] “Fidel’s Final Victory,” Julia Sweig, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2007, 40-41.
March 6, 2007 3:30 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 6, 2007 15:30
The closest thing resembling credible praise for the embargo that I can remember was something along the lines of that it "may have appropriate in 1979 given the tensions that persisted at the height of the Cold War," and I've been researching this issue all year. Those probably aren't the exact words... check out www.cubacentral.com if you want details. There are a ton of articles there from both domestic and international media about Cuba issues. I don't know who runs that site but it's awesome.
I won't even mention that the travel restrictions have torn apart hundreds of Cuban families. That is hideously immoral, at least according to our standards. Angus Reid and Gallup, two of the most prestigious organizations specializing in measuring global opinion, have shown that the majority of the American people are in favor of dropping the embargo and normalizing our relations with Cuba. By the people, of the people, for the people? Not on this one, folks.
Last point...The 2006 United Nations resolution condemned the embargo by a vote of 183 to 4.
-Matt
P.S. Yes, there is something you can do right now. Get your congressman/woman to support H.R. 654! It's a bill meant to end the travel ban. Write to them!
March 6, 2007 3:46 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 6, 2007 15:46
You, sir, like the US Cuban policy, are a hypocrite. I ask you this: Why Cuba? Why do you talk down to Cubans like that?
China is a far more repressive regime and a real threat to you and the rest of the world, yet your leaders and politics kiss China's ass every day. Cuba is harmless, yet US policies make it even hard for decent Cuban-Americans to visit their relatives.
Why the hypocrisy?
March 6, 2007 3:47 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 6, 2007 15:47
If you think paperwork is the problem, you have a lot to learn. I would suggest educating yourself before you condescend. You'll sound like less of an idiot that way.
-Matt
March 6, 2007 4:49 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 6, 2007 16:49
I am the president of the Canada Cuba Literary Alliance. I just returned from another trip to Havana. Let me reassure your readers that Cuba is not, in anyway, in reaction mode, life goes on as usual. Cubans are not looking forward to Fidel’s death and they have fully and without a hint of revolution accepted the appointment of his brother, Raul Castro.
While I do feel that Fidel Castro should have created a democracy by now I am in full support of Fidel’s persistence in not capitulating to the U.S. of A. Only a megalomaniac like Bush would even think about thrusting self will on a peace loving country like Cuba. The US embargo needs to be lifted. If George W. Bush would like to see change he would be better off lifting the embargo and let the natural order of exchange between two countries take place. USA president George W. Bush’s policy is nothing short of delusional. He should spend his energy on fixing up his our country.
Richard Grove
Brighton, Ontario, Canada
RG@CanadaCubaLiteraryAlliance.org
March 7, 2007 2:46 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 7, 2007 02:46
March 7, 2007 1:38 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 7, 2007 13:38
Mr.Bush is gone. They just dont get it. Cuba
Has never operated under pressure from any Goverment. Everything has been acomplish by
Dialoge. Mr.Bush did not get it right with
North Korea. Until he started with negociation
Please the American Embargo has not worked in
48 years. Please give it up. The only country
That you can view TV Marti is this country on
On satelite chanel 38. Only 22 more months
Of George Bush Doctrine. Please approve the
New Cuban policy from Senator Mr. Enzy its more
In reality with the Cuban policys.
March 7, 2007 4:34 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 7, 2007 16:34
Should be revisited also the older history of Cuba. Those who revisit it will soon notice that Cubans have shown not to be the type of people to be told by others, not even the United States of America, how to run their country. Depite all propaganda to the contrary, including on those Radio and TV that have nothing Marti about them, but the name, Cuba is unlikely to become anything else than a free country. Time to wake up to reality and get used to it.
March 7, 2007 5:26 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 7, 2007 17:26
March 7, 2007 9:16 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 7, 2007 21:16
Second, Cuba up to now had nothing to trade as to peak the interest of the USA. Now, there is oil and that changes the game. They appear to hold more known reserves than the ANWR. This has peaked the interests of several oil executives which have pressured Congress to act in behalf of us in the USA.
Eventually they two interest will merge and you will see a transition of open markets initiated by both countries which will create an economic change that will benefit both countries. At that time, you will see the Cuban people once they have something to protect such as property, etc. demand changes to a government that up to now has no laws other than the word of Fidel.
I see no other way of resolving this issue other than time and patience. Don't worry about the Cuban community in Miami or elsewhere, they have no interest in seeing their family members bleed in a protracted war. Instead by merging these interests, both sides will save face and will start to economically cooperate.
Long term animosities between the exiles and the locals, will end. After all, the exile community can buy Cuba several times over without firing one single shot. And I know that when the time comes, Cubans will help their brothers there. We are very family oriented people, sometimes emotional in nature, but overall, we all want the same thing. Goods and Services to flow freely as to provide for our families that are in dire need.
Don't wait for George Bush to solve this issue. He is too busy being a lame duck president and has problems of his own at this time. Don't wish him bad, but hopefully in due time after his administration, the oil business and the economic prosperity brought in due to cooperation, the change will come.
Gus Tapias, Placentia, California